How Did Al-Shabaab Reclaim Territory So Quickly?
Despite receiving over $7 billion in international support, Somalia’s military effort against the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab has faltered dramatically. On July 7, Al-Shabaab recaptured the town of Moqokori using hundreds of fighters and a vehicle loaded with explosives. This wasn’t just another loss, it marked a significant symbolic and strategic defeat for the Somali government, particularly over the powerful clan militia once viewed as its most effective line of defense.
According to Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group, the insurgents gained not only a tactical edge but a morale boost by overcoming the militia in that region. The local militia, known as “Macwiisley,” played a pivotal role in a 2022–2023 campaign that reclaimed over 200 towns and villages. However, this year, Al-Shabaab has taken back roughly 90% of that territory, according to Rashid Abdi of Sahan Research.
Strategically critical towns like Masaajid Cali Gaduud and Adan Yabal have fallen, along with key infrastructure, including three Shebelle River bridges. This severely hampers military logistics. “The whole stretch from the north-west to the south-west of Mogadishu is now controlled largely by Al-Shabaab,” said Abdi.
What Went Wrong with Somalia’s Military Strategy?
Many analysts point to internal dysfunction. Rashid Abdi explains that the government, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud (HSM), failed to work effectively with clans, empowering some while sidelining others based on politics rather than military logic. This political favoritism fractured the Macwiisley coalition that once worked cohesively with the national army.
Mohamed Hassan, a local militia fighter from Hiiraan, explained the energy shift: “The mobilisation went well when the president came from Mogadishu to start the first phase of the offensive (in 2022). Everybody was heavily involved in the fighting… assisting the national army. It’s no longer the same because the leadership is no longer involved and there seems to be disorganisation in how the community militias are mobilised.”
Meanwhile, the Somali National Army remains underdeveloped and underperforming. Mahmood calls it a force “still in development mode while trying to fight a war at the same time.” The US-trained Danab commandos, while effective at striking insurgents, struggle to hold ground and have seen key officers lost in recent battles. “We are beginning to see an army that is not just dysfunctional, but losing the will to actually fight,” said Abdi.
Are Global Donors Still Committed to Somalia’s Security?
There is growing donor fatigue. The African Union’s previous mission ended in December, only to be immediately replaced with another, dubbed AUSSOM, because Somali forces couldn’t stand alone. This has left donors questioning the value of their long-term investment. “There’s a huge amount of donor fatigue. People are asking: ‘What have we bought for the last 10 years?’ Seeing the army run away and having to create) AUSSOM was hard for people,” said a Western diplomat.
The European Union and the United States have provided the bulk of funding since 2007. However, donors, especially the US, are now hesitant to continue funding the AU mission at the same levels. Mahmood believes they might barely scrape together two-thirds of the needed budget for 2025, leaving the effort at constant risk of underperformance.
Newer alliances with the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey may offer some relief. Turkey has deployed about 500 troops to Mogadishu, supported by drones. But according to Mahmood, these nations are more focused on protecting investments, including plans for a Turkish-built spaceport, than committing to Somalia’s broader security challenges.
Meanwhile, Al-Shabaab remains deeply embedded in Somalia’s economy. “It out-taxes the state. Its business tentacles spread everywhere,” Abdi noted. “It is one of the wealthiest insurgencies in Africa.”
As efforts to plan the country’s first one-man, one-vote election stall, labelled impossible even in the capital by diplomats, the fight against Al-Shabaab is being overshadowed by political distractions. “Unfortunately, attention was shifted towards insignificant political-related matters which do not help security instead of focusing on strengthening the armed forces,” former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed recently told reporters.
By Yockshard Enyendi